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In the coming weeks, it is expected that Australian home values will surge to an all-time high, thereby bolstering the argument for the Reserve Bank to implement its first interest rate increase in five months, coinciding with Melbourne Cup Day.
The most recent home value index report from CoreLogic reveals that national property values escalated by 0.9 percent in October. Since the lowest point in January, residential property values nationwide have surged by 7.6 percent.
Tim Lawless, the research director at CoreLogic, suggests that a mere additional 0.5 percent increase would propel national home values to a new record. Barring any significant economic disruptions, this milestone could be achieved by mid-November.
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“It’s almost certain that the national index will reach a new all-time high next month,” he stated.
This data reinforces the case for an imminent interest rate hike, particularly following recent statements from RBA governor Michele Bullock, who indicated the central bank’s vigilance regarding home value growth and its potential impact on household spending.
Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Brad Jones, responsible for financial services, also warned in a recent speech in Sydney that the global downward trend in interest rates, prevalent before the pandemic, may have come to an end. He emphasized that monetary policy is likely to be more volatile as governments and central banks grapple with significant challenges, including technological changes and geopolitical risks.
The RBA initiated interest rate increases in May of the previous year in an effort to combat high inflation, raising the cash rate from a historic low of 0.1 percent to 4.1 percent by June this year.
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During a Q&A session following a speech at the Commonwealth Bank global markets conference, Bullock noted the RBA’s close monitoring of how households are responding to economic shifts. She mentioned that the combination of high inflation and interest rates was curbing household spending, thus mitigating economic overheating. However, household wealth is on the rise as property prices soar throughout the country, which historically stimulates consumption.
In some major cities, home values have surged by over 10 percent since January, with Sydney witnessing an increase of 10.9 percent, Perth at 10.8 percent, and Brisbane at 10.2 percent. Melbourne’s values, in contrast, only grew by 4 percent during the same period.
Sydney’s home values remain 2.2 percent below their peak in January 2022, while Melbourne values are 3.7 percent lower than the high in March 2022. Brisbane’s home values have reached a new peak, with the gains of the past 10 months erasing the earlier 8.9 percent decline.
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The median house value in Sydney now stands at $1,396,888, while for units, it is $832,222. In Melbourne, the median house value is $937,736, and unit values amount to $615,022.
Although home values have consistently risen across most cities, the quarterly growth rate has slowed. Lawless noted that home buying activity is likely to struggle to keep up with the surge in property listings since winter. Nationally, the number of listings has risen by 7.5 percent between June and the end of October. In Sydney and Melbourne, listings have surged by 20 percent during the same period, while in Canberra, they have increased by 33 percent.
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Consumer sentiment is also at a low point, and Lawless pointed out the strong correlation between sentiment levels and home-buying activity. He suggested that with the current low sentiment levels, similar to those experienced during the global financial crisis and the early stages of the pandemic, there is a good chance that sales volume will decline further.