New data shows Auckland’s house prices have fallen, year-on-year, for the first time since 2011. Economists say the largest city could lead the rest of the country into a decline in house prices.

But some areas are more exposed than others.

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan compiled a list of the top 10 places most vulnerable to price falls.

Wairoa topped the list. There, house prices had risen 22 per cent between September 2014 and March 2017.

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That was followed by Gore and Kawerau, South Waikato, Timaru and Ashburton.

JOHN BISSET/STUFF

Timaru has seen prices rise as people left Christchurch after the quakes, but changes to irrigation and water policy could be negative, Gareth Kiernan says.

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