Shamubeel Eaqub

PHOTO: Strict lockdown’s economic benefits starting to show, says economist Shamubeel Eaqub

The research, published on Friday in scientific journal Nature Human Behaviour, modelled the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns around the world on global GDP.

Tsinghua University researchers found that a two-month 80 percent lockdown can slash global gross domestic product (GDP) by around US$20 trillion ($30.1 trillion).

Increasing the duration of an 80 percent lockdown from two to four months increases the global economic losses to US$22.7 trillion ($35 trillion) – and that jumps to US$30 trillion ($46.2 trillion) if the lockdown continues for six months.

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The study focused on global supply chains – which it defines as “systems for the worldwide production and distribution of goods and services” – and found they increase as the number of countries imposing restrictions increase.

The research also suggests supply chains were affected more by the length of a lockdown than its severity.

“A longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones,” the study reads.

“If the pandemic were to reoccur, shorter and stricter lockdowns, which may depend on global coordination, could reduce losses by around 11 percent globally.”



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