Population Boom vs. Housing Supply: Is New Zealand Winning the Battle?

PHOTO: FILE

New Zealand’s population has surged by 370,000 since 2018—equivalent to adding an entire city the size of Hamilton. Yet, despite this explosion in numbers, experts say the housing market may finally be catching up. 😯🏙️

According to Stats NZ, the population hit 5.31 million at the end of 2024, up from 4.94 million just six years prior. Migration is driving this growth more than natural increase (births minus deaths), making the availability and affordability of housing more important than ever. 🌍🧳

🛠️ Building Boom Playing Catch-Up

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan explains that while housing and infrastructure lagged behind population growth in the 2010s, the construction surge in 2021 and 2022 helped bridge the gap. 🧱🚧

“We’ve gone from major under-supply to a place where building consents now match annual migration numbers,” says Kiernan.

🔢 Building Consents: ~33,000/year
🔢 Net Migration: ~32,900/year (as of Feb 2025)

This is a dramatic change from 2023, when migration peaked at a jaw-dropping 113,700—far beyond what the market could absorb. 📉💥

🏘️ Stock Up, Pressure Down

CoreLogic’s Kelvin Davidson adds that while population rose 7.5%, the housing stock actually rose 9.9% between 2018 and 2024. That means there are now more homes available—whether to buy or rent—than ever before. 🏘️📦

“There’s clear evidence the supply/demand imbalance has eased,” Davidson says. “Shortages from years past just aren’t as relevant anymore.”

💸 But Have We Really Solved the Problem?

BNZ’s Mike Jones warns the housing situation isn’t entirely under control. While short-term supply may look healthy, the country has a long-standing history of underbuilding that can’t be erased overnight.

“We had a pre-COVID housing shortage that exploded under stimulus. Now, demand is easing and prices are flatlining—even with lower mortgage rates.”

Jones believes 2024 may mark a turning point, where we shift from tight supply to excess—and we’re already seeing that reflected in falling rents and stagnant house prices in some regions. 📉💰

🚦Missed Opportunities & Infrastructure Lag

Dr. Elham Bahmanteymouri from the University of Auckland says NZ missed a major chance to turn population growth into prosperity.

“Population growth can drive productivity—but only if it’s managed well. Since 2018, we’ve fallen behind on infrastructure, housing, and transport planning,” she says.

🚗🏘️💡 The result? Affordability issues, stretched services, and economic potential left untapped.