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📅 10 September 2025 | ⏱ 5 min read

New Zealand’s economic landscape is showing stark warning signs, with 50,000 fewer jobs than just nine months ago and 10,000 jobs disappearing in the last quarter alone, Stats NZ reports.

While the farming sector shines as a rare bright spot, many provincial areas and key industries are struggling, with Kiwis increasingly looking to Australia for work opportunities.

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📉 Job Losses Hit Hard

Stats NZ’s June quarter business employment data reveals:

  • Construction: 2,315 jobs lost (1.3%)

  • Accommodation & Food Services: 1,869 jobs lost (1.2%)

  • Administrative & Support Services: 1,337 jobs lost (1.4%)

Since December 2023:

  • Construction down 16,000 jobs

  • Manufacturing down 8,700 jobs

  • Retail down 6,000 jobs

Urban areas felt the pinch too:

  • Auckland: 4,828 jobs lost

  • Wellington: 1,342

  • Hawke’s Bay: 837

  • Waikato: 709

Smaller provincial towns were hit hardest:

  • Kaipara District: -10.44%

  • Horowhenua: -10.78%

  • Gore: -9.5%

  • Upper Hutt: -9.31%

Only a few regions saw growth:

  • Hamilton: +2%

  • Queenstown: +4.59%

  • Porirua: +4.56%

⚠️ Sectors Leading the Downturn

Construction and manufacturing remain at the forefront of the slowdown:

  • Construction sales fell $720 million in the quarter

  • Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing down 4.9%

  • Metal product manufacturing down 5.1%

  • Wood and paper product manufacturing down 3.2%

Brad Olsen, CEO of Infometrics, said:

“The decline in construction is dragging down other industries, especially manufacturing and accommodation services. While some sectors may rebound soon, this is a slow, hard slog for the economy.”

🌾 Farming: A Rare Bright Spot

Despite widespread losses, the agriculture sector remains relatively resilient, buoyed by strong commodity prices. However, chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub points out that:

“The loss of jobs in smaller provincial centres is surprising because rural economies are performing well in some areas. But strong cash flows aren’t necessarily translating into new hiring yet.”

🔮 Economic Outlook

Mike Jones, BNZ Chief Economist, warns that recovery is taking longer than expected:

“GDP contracted by 0.5% last quarter, and the labour market is a lagging indicator. We may not see meaningful improvement until the first half of next year.”

While September indicators suggest a small bounce back, the overall picture remains challenging, with many households and businesses under financial pressure.

🚶 Kiwis Leaving for Australia

As job opportunities shrink, migration to Australia is rising, particularly among younger workers and skilled professionals. This trend poses a long-term threat to New Zealand’s workforce and economic growth, especially in smaller towns and regional centres.

💡 What This Means

  • Job losses are concentrated in construction, manufacturing, retail, and services

  • Smaller towns are being hit hardest, even in regions with strong agriculture

  • Economic recovery will be slow and uneven, with the first half of 2026 likely to remain tough

  • Outflow of workers to Australia may exacerbate labour shortages in critical sectors

The picture is sobering: New Zealand faces a tough economic year ahead, and policymakers and businesses will need to act quickly to stabilise the labour market and retain talent.

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