PHOTO: Despite the downturn, first-home buyers remain active, while ‘Mum and Dad’ investors are quietly returning. FILE
🏡 Property values across Aotearoa New Zealand slipped -0.2% in August, marking the fifth straight month of decline, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index (HVI).
The nationwide median now sits at $809,113, still -17.2% below the January 2022 peak and the lowest level since August 2023.
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📉 National Market Trends
Values down -0.6% so far in 2025
Five months of consecutive declines
Gains from late 2024 now completely erased
🔑 Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality NZ, says the slowdown is no shock:
“With weak economic growth, rising unemployment, and subdued confidence, property values are effectively treading water.”
🏠 Who’s Still Buying?
Despite the downturn, first-home buyers remain active, while ‘Mum and Dad’ investors are quietly returning, taking advantage of:
✔️ Lower mortgage rates
✔️ Reduced rental top-ups
✔️ More choice on the market
🌆 Main Centres Snapshot (August 2025)
Auckland (Tāmaki Makaurau): -0.5% 📉 Median $1,047,698
Wellington (Te Whanganui-a-Tara): -0.1% 📉 Median $796,918
Hamilton (Kirikiriroa): -0.1% 📉 Median $753,454
Tauranga: Flat ➖ Median $912,627
Christchurch (Ōtautahi): +0.2% 📈 Median $705,704
Dunedin (Ōtepoti): +0.4% 📈 Median $602,829
Region | Change in dwelling values | ||||
Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
Kāpiti Coast | -0.6% | -2.0% | -1.0% | -22.1% | $796,431 |
Porirua | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | -22.1% | $774,438 |
Te Awa Kairangi ki Uta Upper Hutt | -0.6% | -0.7% | -3.3% | -24.8% | $702,555 |
Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt | -0.1% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -25.6% | $691,827 |
Wellington City | 0.0% | -0.3% | -3.4% | -25.3% | $881,820 |
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington | -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.6% | -25.0% | $796,918 |
📊 Regional Highlights
Some regions bucked the national trend:
Nelson (Whakatū): +0.5% 📈
New Plymouth (Ngāmotu): +0.6% 📈
Invercargill (Waihōpai): +0.5% 📈
Others kept falling:
Napier (Ahuriri): -0.6% 📉
Hastings (Heretaunga): -0.6% 📉
Gisborne (Tūranganui-a-Kiwa): -0.5% 📉
Region | Change in dwelling values | ||||
Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
Ahuriri Napier | -0.6% | -1.1% | 2.0% | -18.9% | $698,486 |
Te Papaioea Palmerston North | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -18.9% | $606,886 |
Tūranganui-a-Kiwa Gisborne | -0.5% | -2.5% | -2.8% | -18.7% | $583,402 |
Whangārei | -0.2% | -0.7% | 2.5% | -18.3% | $715,484 |
Heretaunga Hastings | -0.6% | -0.7% | 1.7% | -18.2% | $725,905 |
Whanganui | -0.3% | -1.3% | -0.9% | -13.4% | $480,620 |
Whakatū Nelson | 0.5% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -13.2% | $712,283 |
Rotorua | 0.1% | -0.5% | 1.0% | -12.3% | $640,650 |
Tāhuna Queenstown | 0.4% | -0.2% | -1.3% | -6.2% | $1,680,803 |
Ngāmotu New Plymouth | 0.6% | -0.2% | 2.5% | -6.0% | $697,630 |
Waihōpai Invercargill | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.2% | – | $488,023 |
🔮 Outlook: What’s Next for 2025–26?
Cotality NZ expects the market to stay subdued through the rest of 2025, with:
Lower interest rates ✅
High stock levels ❌
A weak economy ❌
But by 2026, volumes may pick up, affordability could improve, and values may show modest growth — though no new boom is on the horizon.
📢 Davidson:
“Affordability is looking better, interest rates are easing, and unemployment should drift lower in 2026. That said, fresh restrictions and new housing supply will keep a lid on runaway growth.”
⚡ The Bottom Line
It’s still very much a buyer’s market. Sellers need to be realistic, while first-home buyers and strategic investors have an opportunity to take advantage of softer conditions.