PHOTO: Property values remain flat — but some regions are bucking the trend in a surprising way. FILE
📉More homes are selling — but that doesn’t mean prices are rising.
As New Zealand’s housing market reaches the halfway mark of 2025, a new OneRoof-Valocity report confirms what many have felt on the ground: sales are up, but prices just aren’t moving.
Despite falling mortgage rates, a flurry of buyer interest, and tighter listings in some regions, the nationwide average property value hasn’t budged since January. So what’s really going on — and which suburbs are defying the downturn?
🔍 The National Picture: Flat Prices, Hungry Buyers
📊 At the end of June 2025, the nationwide average property value was unchanged from six months ago — despite an 8.9% increase in house sales in May, and a 12% jump year-on-year.
🧮 The cause? A high number of listings and nervous sellers, putting downward pressure on prices even as buyers circle the market. It’s still a buyer’s market, and sellers are feeling the pinch.
🔄 New listings on OneRoof fell 4.8% in June year-on-year, but with stock levels still elevated, we’re only now starting to see oversupply soften.
💔 Wellington Leads the Fall — Arrowtown Steals the Spotlight
Some key markets are sliding — and Wellington’s taken the hardest hit.
📉 Biggest regional drops (past 6 months):
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Wellington: -1.3% ($851,000 average value)
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Nelson: -1.1%
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Auckland: -0.9%
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Northland: -0.7%
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Hawke’s Bay: -0.5%
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Manawatū-Whanganui: -0.2%
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Bay of Plenty: -0.1%
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Waikato: -0.1%
In stark contrast, Arrowtown recorded a stunning $178,000 increase in average value — the largest dollar jump in the country.
💡 Regions on the Rise: Modest Growth, but Momentum Building
While national figures are flat, seven regions did record gains, though modest.
🟢 Biggest risers (past 6 months):
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Marlborough: +2.0% ($776,000 average)
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Canterbury: +1.6% (Christchurch nearing post-Covid peak of $802,000)
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Otago, Gisborne, Tasman, Taranaki, Southland: +1% to +1.8%
📍 In Canterbury, 83 suburbs hit new record highs, and 65 more are within 5% of their post-Covid peaks.
🏙️ Suburbs to Watch — Surprises and Standouts
🔼 Top-performing suburbs:
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Moana (West Coast): +10.2%
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Mataura (Southland): +7.4%
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Arrowtown (Queenstown-Lakes): +6.3%
🔽 Biggest drops:
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Wellington Central: -8.2% ($41,000 drop to $457,000)
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Oriental Bay: -$120,000
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Beerescourt (Hamilton): -$76,000
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Peacocke (Waikato): -$74,000
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Wharewaka (Taupō): -$71,000
Only two Wellington suburbs — Karori and Khandallah — managed growth, and even then, it was under 1%.
📉 What’s Next for the Market?
The headline here isn’t disaster — it’s uncertainty.
➡️ Despite stronger sales and lower rates, prices have stagnated, revealing deep market caution.
➡️ With sellers still adjusting expectations and oversupply slowly being absorbed, the second half of 2025 could see more upward price movement — but for now, it’s a holding pattern.
🔔 Key Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers:
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💰 Buyers: It’s still your market. Act fast in value suburbs before momentum returns.
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🏠 Sellers: Price sharp, present well, and don’t assume the worst is over just yet.
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📍 Investors: Look to Queenstown-Lakes, Southland, and Canterbury for signs of resilience.
SOURCE: ONEROOF