PHOTO: Subdued activity, high listings, and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on house prices across Aotearoa. FILE
The New Zealand housing market has once again delivered a flat performance, with national property values edging down -0.2% in July, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index.
This mirrors the annual trend, with median values also down -0.2% compared to the same time last year. The national median value now sits at $819,921, reinforcing that despite lower mortgage rates, the broader market remains stalled.
“2025 is turning out to be exactly what we expected — a tug-of-war between the upsides of falling mortgage rates and the downside pressures of job insecurity, high listings, and cautious buyers,” said Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson.
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🏘️ Mixed Results Across the Main Centres
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Auckland continues to drag the national average, down -0.6% for the month and -1.4% over the quarter. Property values in Tāmaki Makaurau are now -21.7% below their peak, with the median value sitting at $1,069,605.
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Wellington also dipped -0.2%, with a larger annual fall of -3.3%. Median values in the capital are now $796,289 — a staggering -24.7% below their peak.
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Hamilton (+0.4%) and Tauranga (+0.9%) showed signs of life, but economists say these small gains are not yet strong enough to suggest a sustained recovery.
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Christchurch (-0.1%) and Dunedin (-0.6%) also softened in July, with Ōtepoti’s values now more than 11% off their peak.
📉 National Property Market Snapshot – July 2025
| Region | Monthly Change | Quarterly Change | Annual Change | From Peak | Median Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | -0.6% | -1.4% | -0.7% | -21.7% | $1,069,605 |
| Hamilton | +0.4% | +0.5% | +3.1% | -9.8% | $767,994 |
| Tauranga | +0.9% | +1.1% | +0.8% | -15.8% | $919,105 |
| Wellington | -0.2% | -0.6% | -3.3% | -24.7% | $796,289 |
| Christchurch | -0.1% | +0.4% | +2.7% | -4.7% | $704,623 |
| Dunedin | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -11.3% | $601,155 |
| NZ National | -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | -16.6% | $819,921 |
⚠️ Confidence Still Low in the Capital
In Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington, market sentiment remains flat, despite some green shoots in areas like Porirua (+0.3%) and Lower Hutt. Overall, the region continues to battle with uncertainty tied to public sector job cuts and high listing volumes.
“There’s no sign of a turnaround yet. Wellington’s earlier sharp downturn might be over, but confidence is fragile and price growth is inconsistent,” Davidson noted.
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🌾 Regional NZ Shows Slight Resilience
While main centres remain sluggish, some regional markets performed modestly better in July:
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Whangārei, Hastings, and New Plymouth saw gains of +0.5% or more
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Gisborne, however, recorded a sharp -1.3% monthly fall
Davidson says this could reflect the uneven effects of NZ’s “two-speed economy,” where some export-led regions outperform urban centres weighed down by construction and services slowdowns.
🔮 Outlook: Slow Recovery Likely Into 2026
Looking forward, Cotality’s outlook remains cautious. While sales activity is picking up, buyers and sellers appear in no rush.
“Mortgage rates may be nearing their floor, and a cash rate cut to 3% is likely on 20 August. But the economic recovery is still tentative, and we expect only a 1-2% national increase in property values for 2025,” Davidson said.
He added that first-home buyers and mum-and-dad investors remain active, but many sellers are willing to wait for better prices, especially if they feel secure in their jobs.
📊 Final Take: A Year of Waiting
With the housing market stuck between lower borrowing costs and broader economic headwinds, 2025 may go down as a transitional year — not a boom, not a crash, but a long, cautious pause.
Buyers are circling, vendors are holding, and confidence is still rebuilding. For now, “going nowhere fast” seems to sum it up.