Shamubeel Eaqub

PHOTO: Shamubeel Eaqub was on The AM Show

New Zealand’s health response to the COVID-19 pandemic might have been successful, but an economist says there’s still “a lot of pain to come” for businesses and workers and that could have a big bearing on the general election.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)’s latest global outlook has showcased the momentous economic impact the pandemic will have on countries around the world.


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In terms of 2020 projected change in GDP, and assuming there’s just a single wave of COVID-19 and lockdowns, the United Kingdom comes out worse with a contraction of 11.5 percent. If there is a second wave before the end of the year, Spain is overall worse off with a contraction of 14.4 percent.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis without precedent in living memory. It has triggered the most severe economic recession in nearly a century and is causing enormous damage to people’s health, jobs and well-being,” the OECD says.

According to the OECD, New Zealand’s GDP will shrink by 8.9 percent, or 10 percent if there is a second wave. It’s forecast to return to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2021 if there is just one hit.