PHOTO: Australia’s property market is booming — but New Zealand are stuck in a financial nightmare. FILE
📈 Aussie House Prices Are Soaring — Here’s the Latest
Australia’s residential property market just clocked its fifth straight month of price growth in June — and interest rates are fuelling the fire.
According to the Cotality Home Value Index, national dwelling values rose by 0.6% last month. That’s across almost every capital city:
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Darwin led the charge
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Followed by Canberra, Perth, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide
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Only Hobart saw a drop — down 0.2%
The turnaround? Largely thanks to falling interest rates, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) widely tipped to make another 0.25% cut at its next meeting on July 7–8.
🏠 But Not Everyone’s Winning — Forced Sales Are Rising
Despite booming values, some Australian homeowners are being forced to sell — not by choice, but due to mortgage stress.
Cotality data shows 1.7% of Aussie borrowers were behind on their home loan repayments in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a red flag, even as property values climb.
“Falling interest rates are a double-edged sword — they push prices up, but they also mask a real affordability crisis,” said one analyst.
For those under pressure, rising values are a lifeline — helping them sell before banks move in.
🇳🇿 Meanwhile in NZ: The Party’s Over Before It Began
While Australia’s housing market climbs, New Zealand’s property sector is floundering.
Here’s the state of play across Aotearoa:
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High interest rates still bite — OCR sits at 3.25%
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Mortgage rates are barely moving, and experts warn the major cuts may be over
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Sales volumes remain soft
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Buyer demand is weak, despite an oversupply of listings
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Economic headwinds, including higher unemployment, are fuelling uncertainty
“Too many sellers, too few buyers, and not enough confidence to move,” says Infometrics economist Brad Olsen.
🧮 The Mortgage Stress Equation
Unlike Australia — where property owners might escape financial pressure thanks to surging house prices — Kiwis have no such buffer.
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Falling rates in NZ have stalled
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Housing demand remains tepid
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And price growth is slow and patchy at best
Many New Zealanders are refixing mortgages at lower rates, which helps. But according to analysts, most are saving rather than spending, wary of what’s next.
“We’re not seeing the confidence that Australia is enjoying right now. NZ’s market still feels on edge,” Olsen noted.
🔮 Two Countries, Two Very Different Property Paths
So what’s driving the divide?
| Factor | Australia | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Outlook | More rate cuts likely | One cut at most expected |
| House Price Trend | Strong monthly growth | Stagnant or slow rise |
| Mortgage Arrears | 1.7% and rising | Lower but under pressure |
| Market Sentiment | Rebounding | Hesitant |
| Buyer Activity | Active | Flat |
| Seller Conditions | Favourable | Competitive, oversupplied |
🧭 What Happens Next?
Australia may be enjoying a price surge now, but even there, rising arrears signal underlying fragility.
In New Zealand, unless the Reserve Bank slashes rates further or buyers re-enter the market en masse, the recovery could take years — not months.
One thing is clear: trans-Tasman housing markets are headed in opposite directions, for now.
🎬 VIDEO: Aussies Celebrate Gains, But Mortgage Pain Looms