PHOTO: NZ Exodus Hits Critical Mass: Why the Property Market Faces a Decade of Struggle. FILE
🚨 The Great Kiwi Departure: A Looming Economic Time Bomb
While house prices may have stabilised in some regions, the foundations of New Zealand’s property market are under serious threat. The elephant in the room? Tens of thousands of New Zealanders are packing up and leaving for good. And while some see this as a temporary trend, we believe it signals a structural shift that will suppress the property market for the rest of the decade.
📌 Let’s break it down.
📦 Aveling’s Story: One of Tens of Thousands Leaving NZ
Aveling Li, a Christchurch nail salon owner and creative entrepreneur, is heading for Brisbane. She’s not alone. Like many, she’s chasing:
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Better educational opportunities for her daughter
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A more vibrant creative scene
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A warmer climate
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And yes, more people to sing to (Brisbane’s Chinese population is over 300,000)
While her move is deeply personal, it reflects a wider sentiment among Kiwis: that opportunity, lifestyle, and long-term prospects lie across the Tasman.
📉 Migration Trends Paint a Grim Picture
According to Stats NZ:
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Net loss of NZ citizens has skyrocketed in the past 18 months
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Departures of skilled workers like builders, creatives, and professionals are rising
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Non-NZ migration has slowed, and the skill match is poor
🧠 Infometrics economist Nick Brundson notes this isn’t just 20-somethings going on OEs. Whole families are leaving. That means they’re unlikely to return, especially if their kids grow up in Australia.
🧓 Ageing Population + Youth Exodus = Demographic Timebomb
“Losing young people and kids isn’t great, given the ageing population we have.” – Nick Brundson
🔨 Builders, Creatives, and Entrepreneurs Are Out
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Construction slowdown? Builders head to Australia.
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Media sector too “local”? Creatives look to Brisbane.
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Business feeling flat? Owners chase bigger markets.
These aren’t just short-term decisions. These are lifestyle migrations. And they’re permanent.
💸 The Property Market Fallout: Demand Down, Prices Vulnerable
Let’s be clear: a shrinking population of working-age Kiwis spells disaster for property demand.
1. 👪 Fewer Families = Fewer Buyers
If families are leaving and not being replaced by equally skilled migrants, housing demand plummets – especially for suburban homes and family-friendly regions.
2. 🏘️ Oversupply Risk
Thousands of homes are still being built or sitting unsold. Without local or international demand to match, we’re heading into oversupply territory.
3. 💼 No Jobs = No Buyers
Job growth is flat. Wage growth is lagging. That’s a recipe for fewer first-home buyers and a declining investor appetite.
⚠️ Why It’s Structural, Not Cyclical
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner calls it what it is:
“It’s getting harder, not easier, to hang onto our skilled people.”
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Australia is using mineral wealth to boost wages and productivity.
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New Zealand is bleeding its skilled talent pool, replacing them with low-skill migration.
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The skills mismatch is not just anecdotal — it’s economic kryptonite.
⌛ Don’t Expect a Rebound This Decade
Yes, migration numbers may look positive on paper. But:
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Inbound migration is less skilled
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Outbound migration is permanent
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Family demographics are changing
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Confidence in NZ’s future is shaken
That is why we believe the New Zealand property market will struggle for the entire decade.
🔍 Final Word
The property market doesn’t run on headlines or sentiment — it runs on people, jobs, and confidence. Right now, New Zealand is losing all three.
It’s not just about interest rates or inflation. It’s about a deep, structural transformation of our population and economy. And if policymakers don’t act fast, the property market slump will not be a blip. It will be a long-term reality.
📊 Key Takeaways:
✅ Net Kiwi migration loss is accelerating
✅ Outbound Kiwis are families, not backpackers
✅ Skilled workers are leaving; unskilled arriving
✅ Job growth is low, confidence is lower
✅ Demand for homes is weakening across regions
✅ Property prices may stagnate for years
SOURCE: STUFF