PHOTO: Despite the downturn, first-home buyers remain active, while ‘Mum and Dad’ investors are quietly returning. FILE
🏡 Property values across Aotearoa New Zealand slipped -0.2% in August, marking the fifth straight month of decline, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index (HVI).
The nationwide median now sits at $809,113, still -17.2% below the January 2022 peak and the lowest level since August 2023.
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📉 National Market Trends
-
Values down -0.6% so far in 2025
-
Five months of consecutive declines
-
Gains from late 2024 now completely erased
🔑 Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality NZ, says the slowdown is no shock:
“With weak economic growth, rising unemployment, and subdued confidence, property values are effectively treading water.”
🏠 Who’s Still Buying?
Despite the downturn, first-home buyers remain active, while ‘Mum and Dad’ investors are quietly returning, taking advantage of:
✔️ Lower mortgage rates
✔️ Reduced rental top-ups
✔️ More choice on the market
🌆 Main Centres Snapshot (August 2025)
-
Auckland (Tāmaki Makaurau): -0.5% 📉 Median $1,047,698
-
Wellington (Te Whanganui-a-Tara): -0.1% 📉 Median $796,918
-
Hamilton (Kirikiriroa): -0.1% 📉 Median $753,454
-
Tauranga: Flat ➖ Median $912,627
-
Christchurch (Ōtautahi): +0.2% 📈 Median $705,704
-
Dunedin (Ōtepoti): +0.4% 📈 Median $602,829
|
Region
|
Change in dwelling values
|
||||
|
Month
|
Quarter
|
Annual
|
From peak
|
Median value
|
|
|
Kāpiti Coast
|
-0.6%
|
-2.0%
|
-1.0%
|
-22.1%
|
$796,431
|
|
Porirua
|
-0.3%
|
-0.2%
|
0.1%
|
-22.1%
|
$774,438
|
|
Te Awa Kairangi ki Uta Upper Hutt
|
-0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
-3.3%
|
-24.8%
|
$702,555
|
|
Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai Lower Hutt
|
-0.1%
|
-1.2%
|
-1.6%
|
-25.6%
|
$691,827
|
|
Wellington City
|
0.0%
|
-0.3%
|
-3.4%
|
-25.3%
|
$881,820
|
|
Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
|
-0.1%
|
-0.5%
|
-2.6%
|
-25.0%
|
$796,918
|
📊 Regional Highlights
Some regions bucked the national trend:
-
Nelson (Whakatū): +0.5% 📈
-
New Plymouth (Ngāmotu): +0.6% 📈
-
Invercargill (Waihōpai): +0.5% 📈
Others kept falling:
-
Napier (Ahuriri): -0.6% 📉
-
Hastings (Heretaunga): -0.6% 📉
-
Gisborne (Tūranganui-a-Kiwa): -0.5% 📉
|
Region
|
Change in dwelling values
|
||||
|
Month
|
Quarter
|
Annual
|
From peak
|
Median value
|
|
|
Ahuriri Napier
|
-0.6%
|
-1.1%
|
2.0%
|
-18.9%
|
$698,486
|
|
Te Papaioea Palmerston North
|
0.4%
|
0.0%
|
-0.7%
|
-18.9%
|
$606,886
|
|
Tūranganui-a-Kiwa Gisborne
|
-0.5%
|
-2.5%
|
-2.8%
|
-18.7%
|
$583,402
|
|
Whangārei
|
-0.2%
|
-0.7%
|
2.5%
|
-18.3%
|
$715,484
|
|
Heretaunga Hastings
|
-0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
1.7%
|
-18.2%
|
$725,905
|
|
Whanganui
|
-0.3%
|
-1.3%
|
-0.9%
|
-13.4%
|
$480,620
|
|
Whakatū Nelson
|
0.5%
|
-0.8%
|
-1.1%
|
-13.2%
|
$712,283
|
|
Rotorua
|
0.1%
|
-0.5%
|
1.0%
|
-12.3%
|
$640,650
|
|
Tāhuna Queenstown
|
0.4%
|
-0.2%
|
-1.3%
|
-6.2%
|
$1,680,803
|
|
Ngāmotu New Plymouth
|
0.6%
|
-0.2%
|
2.5%
|
-6.0%
|
$697,630
|
|
Waihōpai Invercargill
|
0.5%
|
1.2%
|
4.2%
|
–
|
$488,023
|
🔮 Outlook: What’s Next for 2025–26?
Cotality NZ expects the market to stay subdued through the rest of 2025, with:
-
Lower interest rates ✅
-
High stock levels ❌
-
A weak economy ❌
But by 2026, volumes may pick up, affordability could improve, and values may show modest growth — though no new boom is on the horizon.
📢 Davidson:
“Affordability is looking better, interest rates are easing, and unemployment should drift lower in 2026. That said, fresh restrictions and new housing supply will keep a lid on runaway growth.”
⚡ The Bottom Line
It’s still very much a buyer’s market. Sellers need to be realistic, while first-home buyers and strategic investors have an opportunity to take advantage of softer conditions.