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New Zealand’s housing market has a problem that goes well beyond whether house prices are rising or falling.
There are more licensed real estate salespeople competing for business, while the number of homes actually changing hands has been moving in the opposite direction.
For agents whose income depends heavily on commissions, that equation is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.
Fresh market data shows residential sales fell again in August, completing eight consecutive months of year-on-year declines in overall property sales activity during 2026. OneRoof/Cotality describes August as the lowest August tally since 2011, apart from the exceptionally weak 2022 result.
At the same time, recent reporting puts the number of licensed salespeople at 12,850 – 425 more than a year earlier and 723 more than two years earlier.
Put those two trends together and an uncomfortable question emerges:
Does New Zealand now have too many real estate agents chasing too few sales?
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📉 August was another tough month
The latest official REINZ numbers underline just how subdued transaction activity has become.
There were 5,430 residential sales nationwide in August 2026, down 13% from August 2025.
That made it the sixth-lowest August sales result in 35 years of REINZ records.
And the slowdown isn’t simply about falling prices.
In August:
🏠 Sales: 5,430 — down 13.0%
💰 Median price: $750,000 — down 1.3%
📊 REINZ House Price Index: down 0.9%
🏘️ Inventory: 32,908 properties — up 9.7%
🪧 New listings: 8,326 — down 5.1%
⏱️ Median days to sell: 51 days — three days longer than August 2025.
Those numbers tell an important story.
Prices aren’t collapsing. Transactions are.
REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley described the national market as one where values had generally remained steady but transactions had softened, with fewer sales and properties taking longer to sell.
For homeowners, relatively stable prices may be reassuring.
For agents, however, transaction volume is what generates commissions.
And there simply aren’t enough transactions to go around as comfortably as there once were.
📊 More agents competing for fewer deals
Here’s where the numbers become particularly interesting.
OneRoof reported this month that New Zealand now has 12,850 licensed real estate salespeople.
That’s:
425 more than a year ago
and
723 more than two years ago.
That growth follows an increase already visible in official Real Estate Authority figures. REA’s 2024/25 annual report showed active salesperson licences rising from 12,164 in June 2024 to 12,300 in June 2025. It also reported 2,078 new licences issued during 2024/25, compared with 1,710 the previous year.
Yet the pool of available transactions is shrinking.
That’s a difficult combination:
⬆️ More licensed salespeople
⬇️ Fewer property transactions
⬆️ More properties sitting on the market
⬆️ Longer selling times
⬇️ Fewer new listings
It means the battle for both listings and completed sales becomes increasingly intense.
🚨 More than 3,000 salesperson licences are inactive
Perhaps the most revealing statistic is what is happening to licences themselves.
According to OneRoof’s September investigation, 3,012 salesperson licences are currently inactive.
That’s a significant number.
It doesn’t necessarily mean 3,012 people have permanently abandoned real estate. An inactive licence can reflect a range of circumstances.
But against the current market backdrop, it is difficult to ignore.
OneRoof calculated that those still working were averaging roughly five residential sales per salesperson per year — and crucially, those transactions are not evenly distributed.
Some high-performing agents and teams continue to command substantial market share.
Others may go months without a settlement.
That distinction matters enormously.
An industry-wide average of five sales does not mean every agent sells five houses.
A relatively small group of established performers can account for a disproportionate number of listings and transactions, leaving newer or lower-volume agents fighting over what’s left.
💸 The commission squeeze
Consider what happens when several pressures arrive simultaneously.
An agent first has to win the listing.
They then have to market the property, conduct open homes, follow up buyers, negotiate between parties and keep the vendor engaged through what is now typically a longer campaign.
Even then, the property might not sell.
August’s median 51 days to sell was the fourth-highest August figure in REINZ’s 35-year series.
And nationally, inventory increased 9.7% year-on-year, despite new listings actually falling 5.1%.
In simple terms, stock is accumulating because homes aren’t clearing the market quickly enough.
For agents, that can mean more work for each successful commission.
🚗 Agents turning to second jobs
This isn’t merely theoretical.
OneRoof’s recent investigation found agents supplementing their real estate income by delivering Uber Eats, working concierge jobs, cutting hair and selling personal possessions.
One experienced Auckland agent told the publication she had enjoyed her best year in the 12 months to June — but had subsequently gone months without a sale.
Another agent reportedly spent 12 months in the industry without completing a sale and was delivering food to help cover fuel costs while continuing to prospect for business.
That paints a very different picture from the traditional public perception of real estate as an industry of expensive cars, large commissions and easy money.
For some agents in 2026, survival has become the immediate goal.
🏠 Buyers have time — agents don’t
Another defining feature of the current market is that buyers have little reason to panic.
There is plenty of stock.
Inventory stood at 32,908 properties nationally in August.
Cotality chief economist Kelvin Davidson says caution among owner-occupiers who would normally move house is contributing to the slowdown. Available choice isn’t the problem; economic uncertainty, job security and concerns about achieving the desired sale price appear to be keeping potential movers on the sidelines.
When buyers believe another suitable property will come along, urgency disappears.
That creates longer negotiations and longer campaigns.
For an agent working purely or predominantly on commission, time has a very real financial cost.
📉 Eight consecutive declines
Perhaps the clearest warning sign is the direction of travel.
Cotality’s measure of sales activity — incorporating agent and private transactions — has recorded a year-on-year decline in every month of 2026 so far.
August represented the eighth consecutive fall, with activity down nearly 12% from a year earlier.
This isn’t therefore just one unusually poor month.
July had already recorded 6,090 REINZ sales, down 10% year-on-year, with 50 median days to sell and inventory 9.3% higher.
The weakness has persisted.
🗺️ But New Zealand isn’t one property market
There is an important qualification.
The pain isn’t evenly distributed.
REINZ reported that 13 of 16 regions recorded fewer sales year-on-year in August, but some areas continued to perform relatively well.
Southland’s median price increased 7.4% to $505,000, while Tasman increased 5.6% to $830,000.
Every South Island series in REINZ’s House Price Index increased over the three months to August, while seven of eight North Island series declined.
So describing every NZ agent as being in crisis would be misleading.
Location matters.
So does experience, reputation, database size, marketing ability and the strength of an agent’s referral network.
And increasingly, market share matters.
⚠️ The bigger issue: consolidation
That’s where 2026 could have longer-term consequences for the real estate industry.
A prolonged low-volume market tends to favour agents who already possess:
Large databases
Strong personal brands
Repeat vendors
Referral networks
Established prospecting systems
Financial reserves
High-performing teams
Newer agents don’t necessarily have those advantages.
Yet their basic costs continue whether they sell a house or not — licensing, vehicle expenses, marketing, technology, prospecting and simply the cost of living.
That potentially creates a vicious circle.
Fewer transactions → fewer commissions → agents leave or become inactive → successful agents capture greater market share → entry becomes even harder for newcomers.
The inactive-licence figure suggests that process may already be happening.
🔎 So, does NZ actually have too many real estate agents?
There isn’t a scientifically correct number of agents New Zealand “should” have.
But the imbalance is hard to dismiss.
There are now 12,850 licensed salespeople, according to the latest reporting, while sales activity has fallen year-on-year for eight consecutive months.
Meanwhile, 3,012 salesperson licences are inactive.
The market is effectively sorting the industry.
And despite all the discussion about OCR movements, house prices and whether the elusive property recovery has finally arrived, there is another recovery that thousands of people in the industry desperately need:
transactions.
Because an agent can’t earn a commission from a house that doesn’t sell.
And right now, New Zealand appears to have more people licensed to sell property at precisely the time buyers and sellers are completing fewer deals.
For some agents, 2026 isn’t a property downturn.
It’s a fight to stay in the industry.