PHOTO: After 12 months of interest rate cuts, New Zealand’s property market is still flatlining — and experts warn Australia’s record-breaking housing boom might not be bulletproof. YOUTUBE
While Aotearoa New Zealand has endured a dramatic house price slump, Australia’s property market is defying gravity, with most capital cities recently posting all-time price highs.
But how long can the good times last across the Tasman?
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📉 New Zealand: A Year of Rate Cuts and Still No Recovery
In the past year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has aggressively cut the Official Cash Rate to stimulate the market.
Yet national house prices have continued to drift lower, with no sign of the rebound seen in past cycles. In many areas:
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Values remain 15–25% below peak
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Buyer confidence is weak due to high living costs and job market uncertainty
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Listings remain elevated, giving buyers the upper hand
The stark reality? Interest rate cuts alone haven’t been enough to turn the market around.
📈 Australia’s Market Still Surging — For Now
In contrast, Australia’s property market has shrugged off higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, and affordability concerns. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth have all posted record-high median prices this year.
Analysts say strong demand from migration, chronic housing shortages, and investor confidence have so far kept prices climbing.
But can it last?
⚠ Lessons for Australia from NZ’s Housing Crash
New Zealand’s downturn offers a clear warning:
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Markets can turn despite rate cuts – Lower borrowing costs don’t guarantee price growth.
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Oversupply & weak jobs market can overpower cheap credit – If unemployment rises, forced sales can quickly hit prices.
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Global shocks matter – New Zealand’s export-led economy has been hit by weaker global demand, dampening confidence.
If similar headwinds hit Australia — such as higher unemployment or a flood of new housing supply — the seemingly unstoppable boom could stall.
🎥 Watch: The Full Breakdown
Property commentator New Zealand’s Housing Crash is a Lesson for Australia unpacks the data and what it could mean for buyers, sellers, and investors.
📊 The Bottom Line
Australia’s housing market may be riding high now, but New Zealand’s slump proves no market is immune to broader economic forces.
With interest rates unlikely to fall dramatically in Australia any time soon, and affordability stretched to the limit, the risk of a correction is real.