PHOTO: Spoiler: Property markets don’t move in straight lines — and flat prices aren’t the danger sign you think they are.
📉 0.1% Rise in 2024 – But What Does It Really Mean for 2025?
New Zealand house prices crept up just 0.1% over the past year — a stat that’s making both homeowners and investors ask the big question:
👉 Are prices stuck flat… or is something bigger coming in 2025?
In a must-watch property breakdown, Property Now guest and respected NZ economist Ed McKnight — known for his columns in the NZ Herald — shatters the biggest myths about the market and challenges some dangerous assumptions that many Kiwis still believe.
💡 “Flat” Prices Aren’t a Warning Sign — They’re Often a Setup for the Next Climb
One of the biggest misconceptions in the market? That when house prices flatten out, it signals weakness or long-term stagnation.
McKnight disagrees — and warns against “misreading” short-term plateaus.
“Flat markets are not a red flag — they’re often the calm before the next cycle starts,” he says. “Property doesn’t move in straight lines — it moves in waves.”
🧠 Myth #1 – The Trap of Extrapolation Bias
Ed McKnight highlights extrapolation bias — the mistake of assuming what’s just happened will keep happening.
📉 If the market fell last year, people assume it’ll keep falling.
📈 If the market rose sharply, people assume it’ll soar again.
“It’s like looking at the last few days of weather and predicting the next 12 months from that. That’s not how property works,” he explains.
🔄 What Really Moves the Market — And What Doesn’t
According to McKnight, most investors focus on the wrong indicators — hype, headlines, and historical averages — instead of the real drivers:
✅ Interest rates and credit availability
✅ Migration and housing supply
✅ Income growth and employment trends
❌ Not social media noise
❌ Not short-term dips or spikes
“To think like a property professional, you need to ignore the noise and follow the fundamentals,” he advises.
📆 What Does This Mean for 2025 House Prices?
While there’s no crystal ball, McKnight believes 2025 could surprise a lot of investors — especially those who’ve stayed on the sidelines assuming the “flat” market is stuck in neutral.
He stresses that current conditions — including rising migration, stable interest rates, and improving confidence — could position the market for growth, but warns against assuming anything is guaranteed.
🧾 Final Word: Flat Doesn’t Mean Finished
New Zealand’s property market may look quiet now, but the smart money knows that this is the exact moment to sharpen your strategy. McKnight’s message is clear:
🚫 Don’t be swayed by short-term figures
✅ Look at fundamentals
🔁 Understand cycles — not headlines
🔍 Ready to Think Like a Pro?
2025 could be the year the market turns — but only if you understand what’s really happening beneath the surface.
🧠 Think cycles. Think critically. Think long-term.