PHOTO: New Zealand’s fragile housing recovery may already be running out of steam 💥 FILE
Fresh data from ASB Bank shows confidence in the property market has sharply weakened as fears around inflation, fuel prices, global conflict, and rising mortgage rates begin rattling households again.
And in a dramatic shift from just 12 months ago…
📈 Most Kiwis now expect interest rates to RISE — not fall.
📉 HOUSE PRICE CONFIDENCE TAKES A HIT
According to ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey, optimism around house prices has fallen sharply in recent months.
A net:
📊 19% of respondents now expect house prices to rise over the next year
That’s down significantly from:
📊 30% in the previous survey.
The numbers suggest many Kiwis are becoming increasingly cautious about where the market is heading next.
💸 FEARS OF HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES RETURNING
One of the biggest shocks in the report is the sudden reversal in interest rate expectations 👇
Over the three months to April:
🚨 A net 48% of respondents now expect interest rates to INCREASE over the next 12 months.
That’s a massive turnaround from one year ago when:
📉 A net 48% expected rates to FALL.
The mood shift reflects growing fears inflation may stay higher for longer.
🌍 GLOBAL CRISIS NOW HITTING NZ PROPERTY CONFIDENCE
According to ASB Senior Economist:
Kim Mundy
rising geopolitical tensions and fuel prices linked to Middle East conflict are now directly impacting housing sentiment.
💬 “Rising fuel costs and inflation concerns are flowing through to higher interest rate expectations,” Mundy said.
That’s becoming a major concern for homeowners already dealing with:
❌ High living costs
❌ Mortgage pressure
❌ Weak wage growth
❌ Sluggish housing activity
🏘️ MOST KIWIS NOW EXPECT FLAT PRICES — NOT GROWTH
While most respondents are not predicting a housing crash, many no longer expect strong gains either.
Instead, the survey suggests a growing number of households now believe:
🏡 House prices will simply remain flat.
That reflects a market lacking strong momentum in either direction.
📍 AUCKLAND TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT
The survey showed Auckland recorded the largest decline in house price expectations nationwide.
That suggests New Zealand’s biggest city may be especially vulnerable to:
📈 Higher mortgage rates
⛽ Rising fuel costs
💰 Affordability pressure
Auckland’s property market has already struggled to regain momentum following sharp post-Covid corrections.
🌱 CANTERBURY HOLDING UP BETTER
By contrast, Canterbury appears to be showing greater resilience 👀
ASB says confidence and market conditions in the region remain comparatively stronger, although buyers there are also becoming more cautious.
The region continues benefiting from:
✔ Tighter housing supply
✔ Stronger affordability relative to Auckland
✔ More stable market conditions
🏠 BUYERS STILL HAVE ONE BIG ADVANTAGE
Despite weakening confidence, ASB says abundant housing supply is continuing to support buyer activity.
For purchasers, current market conditions mean:
✔ More listings available
✔ Greater negotiating power
✔ More time to make decisions
✔ Less FOMO pressure than during the boom years
That’s helping prevent an outright market collapse — at least for now.
📈 INFLATION COULD SURGE ABOVE 4% AGAIN
ASB economists are now forecasting inflation could rise back above:
🚨 4% during 2026
If that happens, mortgage borrowers may face another wave of pressure.
The bank also warned interest rates may rise further during the second half of this year.
🔒 KIWI BORROWERS NOW RUSHING TO LOCK IN RATES
With uncertainty growing, more homeowners are expected to:
🏦 Fix mortgage rates for longer terms
rather than gamble on future rate cuts.
That marks a huge psychological change from late 2024 and early 2025, when many borrowers believed rates had peaked.
🧠 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKET
Housing markets are heavily driven by confidence 👇
When buyers fear:
❌ Inflation
❌ Job instability
❌ Rising repayments
❌ Economic slowdown
they often delay major property decisions.
That can lead to:
📉 Slower sales
📉 Flat house prices
📉 Reduced investor activity
📉 Weaker market momentum
which is exactly what ASB now expects in the near term.
🔥 THE BOTTOM LINE
ASB’s latest housing confidence survey suggests New Zealand’s fragile property recovery may already be faltering.
💥 Interest rate fears are back
💥 House price confidence is falling
💥 Auckland sentiment is weakening
💥 Inflation concerns are rising
💥 Buyers are becoming cautious again
And with global instability now flowing directly into mortgage expectations…
🏡 New Zealand’s housing market could be heading into another difficult phase.