PHOTO: Tony Alexander
New Zealand’s housing market may not be crashing — but according to leading economist Tony Alexander, many sellers still haven’t accepted the new reality 👀
Fresh survey results from the respected property commentator show a growing number of real estate agents are seeing:
- 📉 Falling prices
- 🚪 Lower open home attendance
- 🏘️ Investors pulling back
💥 A clear sign the market remains under pressure in 2026
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📊 The Survey Results Raising Eyebrows
Alexander’s latest nationwide survey of real estate agents found:
- 44% say prices are falling in their area
- 51% report fewer people attending open homes
- 50% are seeing fewer investors active in the market
👉 The message?
💥 Buyer confidence remains fragile
🌍 Why The Market Is Slowing
According to Alexander, several major issues are weighing on confidence:
⚠️ Global Uncertainty
- Ongoing overseas conflict
- Rising oil prices
- Economic instability
💼 Job Concerns
- Softening labour market
- Concerns about job security
- Households becoming more cautious
💰 Affordability Pressure
- Higher living costs
- Mortgage stress still lingering
- Buyers becoming more price-sensitive
🏠 Sellers Being Forced To Adjust
Alexander says many vendors are now facing a difficult truth:
👉 The market is no longer behaving like the boom years
In many areas:
- Buyers are negotiating harder
- Homes are taking longer to sell
- Unrealistic pricing expectations are being challenged
💥 “Got to get realistic” is becoming the key message across the industry
👀 Open Home Traffic Falling
One of the strongest indicators of slowing momentum?
👉 Fewer people through open homes
With over half of agents reporting lower attendance:
- Casual buyers are disappearing
- Buyers are taking longer to commit
- Confidence remains cautious
🏘️ Investors Pulling Back
Investors — traditionally a major driver of activity — are also retreating
Possible reasons include:
- Ongoing uncertainty around interest rates
- Softer capital growth expectations
- Tightening cashflow conditions
- Increased holding costs
💥 This is reducing competition in many parts of the market
🌱 First-Home Buyers Still Active
There is one group still showing resilience 👇
👉 First-home buyers
Why?
- Reduced competition from investors
- More negotiating power
- Slightly improved affordability compared to peak market conditions
💥 In many regions, first-home buyers are now the most active group in the market
🧠 What This Means For The NZ Property Market
The market appears to be entering a “reset” phase:
✔ Buyers cautious
✔ Sellers adjusting expectations
✔ Investors sitting on the sidelines
👉 But not all doom and gloom
The market is still functioning — just at a slower, more price-sensitive pace
🔥 The Bottom Line
Tony Alexander’s latest survey paints a clear picture:
📉 NZ’s property market remains soft
📉 Buyer confidence is subdued
📉 Investors are retreating
But with first-home buyers still active and interest rates stabilising, the market may simply be shifting back toward more normal conditions after years of extreme growth.