PHOTO: The latest NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows housing activity weakened again in April 👇. FILE
New Zealand’s housing market is continuing to lose momentum, with fresh data revealing falling sales volumes, cautious buyers, weakening rents in major centres, and growing fears mortgage rates could stay higher for longer 💥
According to new figures released by Cotality, the property market remains stuck in a subdued holding pattern as economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue weighing heavily on confidence.
📊 SALES FALLING FOR FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS
The latest NZ Monthly Housing Chart Pack shows housing activity weakened again in April 👇
📉 National sales volumes fell:
-9.0% compared to the same month last year
And across the first four months of 2026:
🏡 Around 1,500 fewer homes sold nationally compared to the same period in 2025.
😟 BUYERS STILL NERVOUS
According to Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, confidence remains extremely fragile.
Key concerns impacting buyers include:
⚠️ Inflation worries
⚠️ Mortgage rate uncertainty
⚠️ Global instability
⚠️ Economic slowdown fears
⚠️ Labour market weakness
Davidson said many buyers are simply taking a “wait and see” approach.
🏘️ HOUSE PRICES STILL WELL BELOW PEAKS
While national values edged slightly higher in April, the broader market remains weak overall.
📈 National property values rose just:
+0.1% in April
But nationally, prices are still:
📉 -16.8% below peak levels
and:
📉 -0.8% lower year-on-year.
🏙️ AUCKLAND & WELLINGTON STILL STRUGGLING
The country’s largest centres continue to face some of the softest conditions 👇
📍 Auckland
Prices remain well below pandemic-era peaks, with buyers retaining strong negotiating power.
📍 Wellington
The capital remains one of NZ’s weakest-performing housing markets following sharp declines from 2021 highs.
Meanwhile:
✅ Christchurch
✅ Dunedin
continue showing comparatively better resilience.
🧑💼 FIRST-HOME BUYERS DOMINATING THE MARKET
One group continues to outperform 👀
🏡 First-home buyers now account for:
📊 28.2% of all purchases nationally
📊 More than 30% of purchases in Auckland
Why?
✔ Reduced competition
✔ Lower prices than 2021
✔ KiwiSaver access
✔ Easier low-deposit lending
✔ Lower mortgage servicing costs than peak levels
Davidson says first-home buyers remain the market’s key source of activity.
🚚 PROPERTY “MOVERS” ARE HOLDING BACK
Interestingly, homeowners looking to upgrade or shift properties remain noticeably cautious.
“Movers” currently account for only around:
📉 26% of purchases
below their longer-term average.
Economic uncertainty appears to be discouraging many households from making major property decisions right now.
📉 RENTAL MARKET ALSO WEAKENING
The softness is now spreading into the rental market too 👇
According to Stats NZ data:
📊 National rents rose only 0.3% annually to April
With some major centres actually recording rental declines:
📍 Auckland
📉 -2.3% annual rent decline
📍 Wellington
📉 -4.2% annual rent decline
Meanwhile stronger regional centres continue performing better:
📍 Dunedin
📈 +4.7%
📍 Christchurch
📈 +2.1%
🏦 BORROWERS NOW FIXING MORTGAGES FOR LONGER
One of the biggest shifts happening right now is in mortgage behaviour 👀
Reserve Bank data shows borrowers are increasingly locking in fixed mortgage rates for longer periods.
That’s a major reversal from late 2024 when many borrowers expected rates to keep falling.
Now, fears around:
⛽ Fuel costs
🌍 Global conflict
📈 Inflation persistence
are causing borrowers to seek certainty instead.
🌍 IRAN CONFLICT NOW IMPACTING NZ PROPERTY SENTIMENT
One surprising factor now influencing NZ housing confidence is growing concern around the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
Davidson warned rising transport and fuel costs could keep inflation elevated for longer, reducing the chances of rapid mortgage rate cuts.
That uncertainty is now flowing directly into buyer sentiment.
👀 SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The housing market currently appears stuck between competing forces:
🟢 Supporting factors:
✔ Lower prices than peak
✔ First-home buyer demand
✔ Stable overall supply
🔴 Negative pressures:
❌ Weak confidence
❌ Economic uncertainty
❌ Soft labour market
❌ Inflation fears
❌ Mortgage rate concerns
For now, the market appears to be moving sideways rather than strongly recovering.
🔥 THE BOTTOM LINE
New Zealand’s housing market remains subdued as buyers continue grappling with uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and the wider economy.
💥 Sales volumes falling
💥 Auckland & Wellington still weak
💥 Rents softening
💥 Mortgage fears rising
💥 Buyers cautious
And with confidence still fragile…
🏡 A strong nationwide housing recovery may still be some way off.