PHOTO: AUCKLAND & WELLINGTON STILL FURTHEST FROM THEIR PEAKS — BUT ONE IS FAR MORE “UNDERVALUED” THAN THE OTHER. FILE
New Cotality data shows that Auckland and Wellington remain the weakest housing markets in New Zealand, still sitting furthest below their 2021–2022 peaks — but property experts say one of these cities may now represent serious value.
Nationally, property values edged up 0.1% in November, pushing the NZ median to $806,551. That’s still:
17.4% below the early 2022 peak
Only 1.1% above the June 2023 trough
But inside the numbers, the story is anything but uniform.
📍 REGIONAL SNAPSHOT — A VERY MIXED PICTURE
Auckland
22.9% below peak
Down 2.2% YoY
Down 0.2% this month
Eight months in a row of declines
Wellington
25.1% below peak (worst in NZ)
Down 1.8% YoY
Up 0.1% this month
Christchurch
Only 3.8% below peak
Up 2.6% YoY
Other centres
Hamilton: down 11.4% from peak, but trending upward
Tauranga: down 15.2% from peak, but rising
Dunedin: down 10.8% from peak, now stabilising
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📊 ECONOMIST: “THIS IS AN AUCKLAND STORY — IT’S DRAGGING DOWN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE”
Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says the national flatness is almost entirely due to Auckland’s ongoing slump:
“If Auckland was removed from the national data, recent months would show increases.”
He says Auckland’s downturn is being driven by:
Higher-than-normal listings
Buyer caution
Slow economic confidence
A large pipeline of new townhouses
Strong supply keeping prices suppressed
Davidson describes Auckland’s mood as a “malaise”, but predicts a rebound eventually:
“It’s the biggest economy. It will come back — but supply and demand are doing their job right now.”
📈 MORTGAGE RATE FALLS POINT TO 2026 UPSIDE… BUT BUYERS STILL HOLD THE POWER
Lower mortgage rates and rising affordability indicators suggest values should firm in 2026, but Davidson warns the improvement will be gradual:
“Right now, we remain in a holding pattern.”
Across the country, more listings mean buyers continue to dominate negotiations.
💬 PROPERTY INVESTOR: “AUCKLAND IS NOW UNDERVALUED”
Property investment coach Steve Goodey says Auckland may be offering some of the best buying in years:
“A lot of Auckland property now has excellent rental yields… falling interest rates give investors more room to buy.”
He’s not calling FOMO yet — but he is seeing:
Good-quality stock selling fast
Strong upward pressure on well-presented homes
Investor interest growing again
Goodey believes Auckland’s slump may now represent value ahead of eventual rate cuts and economic improvement.
⚠️ WELLINGTON: “DEPRESSED, OVERSUPPLIED AND ABANDONED”
Goodey says Wellington is a very different beast:
“It’s very depressed… heaps of listings… rents have dropped significantly.”
He points to:
Falling rents
Stagnant tourism
Lower immigration gains
Fewer students
Long-unresolved infrastructure issues
He says many buyers from 2021 “massively overpaid” and are now stuck.
“It’s a buyer and renter’s market — but still full of opportunity for those who understand it.”
Investors are slowly returning, but caution remains high.
🏁 THE BOTTOM LINE: AUCKLAND AND WELLINGTON ARE DOWN — BUT FOR VERY DIFFERENT REASONS
✔ Auckland = Undervalued, weighed down by supply, but poised for recovery
✔ Wellington = Weak fundamentals, falling rents, oversupply pressures
✔ Christchurch = Strongest major city market
✔ Regional NZ = Quiet but positive upward growth
With mortgage rates easing and affordability slowly improving, 2026 may see the first genuine upswing — but for now, NZ’s housing market remains fragmented, fragile, and full of opportunity for strategic buyers.